Adeleke’s defection to Accord Party means that pro-Adeleke votes may be split among the major political parties.
His major challengers are Otunba Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Rt. Hon. Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Adeleke is banking on his first-term projects and name recognition. His campaign has been pushing for a peaceful election.
APC's Oyebamiji is relying on his party structure and federal backing. APC controls significant local government structures. With PDP, which had previously ruled the state, absent on the ballot, APC is the main opposition beneficiary and will target Ife, Osogbo and Ijesa axis.
Salaam, the ADC candidate, served as Speaker of the House of Assembly between 2011 and 2015 and may appeal to female voters having picked Mrs. Yemisi Agiri as his running mate.
The voters are focused on jobs, education, health and security. Youth groups and market associations are holding town halls. Civil society is pushing voter education, the collection of Permanent Voter Cards and peaceful voting. Expect high turnout in Osogbo, Ilesa and Ede where political awareness is strongest.
The Inspector General of Police, Olatunji Disu has already met with Adeleke and party leaders, reading "the riot act". Police, the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, the Department of Security Services and the local police, Amotekun will be deployed across the 30 Local Government Areas.
Groups like Yiaga Africa, Transition Monitoring Group, and Centre for Democracy and Development are expected to deploy observers. They are expected to focus on vote-buying, use of Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Result Viewing portal for transparency.
Civil society is also watching INEC’s logistics: timely arrival of materials, functionality of BVAS, and prompt uploading of results.
This election is less about ideology and more about performance vs structure. Adeleke will run on "what we’ve done in four years". APC will run on "we have the structure to fix Osun". ADC and others will try to be the "third force".
Osun has a history of close, dramatic elections. With 15 political parties on the ballot but essentially a two-horse race between Accord and APC, the election will test whether incumbency or party machinery wins.
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