Presidency Rejects World Bank’s Poverty Report.

Tinubu.

The Presidency has rejected the recent economic assessment released by the World Bank, Nigeria’s largest multilateral financial partner, which projected that 139 million Nigerians are living in poverty. The Presidency described the figure as “unrealistic” and not reflective of the actual economic situation in the country.

President Bola Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, posted on his verified X account on Wednesday, stating that the poverty data needs to be “properly contextualised” due to the limitations of global poverty assessment models.

“While Nigeria values its partnership with the World Bank and appreciates its contributions to policy analysis, the figure quoted must be properly contextualised. It is unrealistic,” Dare stated.

The Presidency clarified that the 139 million figure was calculated based on the international poverty threshold of $2.15 per person per day, established in 2017 using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). It noted that this should not be mistaken for a literal count of Nigerians living in poverty.

According to the explanation, converting the $2.15 benchmark into current naira value equates to about N100,000 per month, which is considerably higher than Nigeria’s newly approved minimum wage of N70,000.

“There must be caution against interpreting the World Bank’s numbers as a literal, real-time headcount. The estimate is derived from the global poverty line of $2.15 per person per day, a benchmark set in 2017 Purchasing Power Parity terms. If converted nominally, that figure equals about $64.5 per month, or nearly N100,000 at today’s exchange rate, well above Nigeria’s new minimum wage of N70,000. Clearly, the measure is an analytical construct, not a direct reflection of local income realities.”

The statement explained further that poverty evaluations under the PPP model depend on outdated consumption figures, such as Nigeria’s last comprehensive survey from 2018/2019, and tend to ignore the informal and subsistence economies that support millions of citizens. Therefore, the government considers the World Bank's data to be a generalised global estimate rather than a precise depiction of present conditions.

“What truly matters is the trajectory, and Nigeria’s is now one of recovery and inclusive reform,” the statement said.

The former Minister pointed out that these types of poverty figures are projections based on dated consumption patterns, and do not consider the complex realities of the informal economy in Nigeria. The Presidency reiterated that the government's priority is not just the numbers, but the direction of progress.

It stated that Nigeria's economy is presently on the path of recovery and reforms, driven by policies focused on inclusion and social development.

It also mentioned that the current administration had introduced and expanded various support and welfare schemes to help lessen the effects of recent economic adjustments and pave the way for future economic stability.

Among the initiatives Sunday Dare highlighted were:

“Conditional Cash Transfers: Expanded to reach up to 15 million households nationwide, with verified digital enrolment through the National Social Register. Over N297 billion has been disbursed since 2023 to poor and vulnerable families.

Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme: A major new initiative targeting all 8,809 electoral wards, delivering micro-infrastructure, livelihoods, and social services directly at the community level.

National Social Investment Programmes: Strengthened components such as N-Power, GEEP micro-loans (TraderMoni, MarketMoni, FarmerMoni), and Home-Grown School Feeding to protect jobs, encourage small enterprises, and keep children in school.

Food Security Initiatives: Distribution of subsidised grains and fertilisers, mechanisation partnerships, and the revival of strategic food reserves to curb inflationary pressure on staples.

Renewed Hope Infrastructure Fund: Financing critical energy, road, and housing projects to lower living costs and stimulate local employment.

National Credit Guarantee Company: Expanding affordable credit to small businesses, women, and youth entrepreneurs through risk-sharing mechanisms with commercial banks.”

The Presidency emphasised that President Tinubu’s government is addressing poverty by tackling the long-standing structural problems that hinder Nigeria’s productivity and inclusive economic growth.

It cited ongoing measures such as the removal of fuel subsidies, the harmonisation of exchange rates, and the reallocation of public funds towards more productive areas, describing these as “painful but necessary choices” intended to deal with the root causes of poverty.

“Even the World Bank itself has acknowledged that these reforms are already restoring macroeconomic stability and growth momentum,” the statement added, referring to recent World Bank statements praising the reform efforts.

The Presidency maintained that economic recovery on its own is insufficient unless it brings about practical improvements in the lives of average Nigerians.

The statement outlined the administration’s medium-term goal as achieving macroeconomic stability that results in affordable food, better job opportunities, and improved infrastructure.

It also mentioned that there were increasing investments in agriculture, manufacturing, and energy projects, including new gas-powered electricity generation and training hubs to create employment and lower living expenses.

“Nigerians should begin to feel more visible improvements in food prices, income, and purchasing power as these programmes mature,” the statement added.

The government also revealed that it is consolidating its social support structure by aligning all welfare schemes under a unified, data-backed system to improve transparency and accountability.

This restructuring includes enlarging the National Social Register and enhancing the existing National Social Investment Programmes to make sure that “no vulnerable community is left behind.”

The Presidency ended its response by restating President Tinubu’s dedication to developing “a resilient and inclusive economy” in which national growth results in actual improvements in people’s daily lives.

“Nigeria rejects exaggerated statistical interpretations detached from local realities. The government remains focused on empowering households, expanding opportunity, and laying the foundation for a fairer, more prosperous nation,” the statement concluded.

Earlier that same Wednesday, the World Bank had voiced concern that, in spite of Nigeria’s recent economic stabilisation efforts, around 139 million citizens were now living in poverty. It warned that unless reforms start yielding visible welfare improvements, the country risks losing the progress achieved.

The World Bank’s Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, made this disclosure during the launch of the Nigeria Development Update for October 2025, themed “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home.”

Verghis praised Nigeria’s recent reforms on fuel subsidy and currency exchange as “foundational” moves that could redirect the nation's economic outlook.

“Over the last two years, Nigeria has commendably implemented bold reforms, notably around the exchange rate and the petrol subsidy. These are the foundations on which the country has the opportunity to build a programme that can transform its economic trajectory,” he said.

He compared Nigeria’s reform window to landmark economic policy changes in India during the early 1990s, stating that such moments must be seized or risk being wasted.

Verghis highlighted that the reforms were already showing results, with improving economic growth, increased revenue, reduced debt stress, stabilising exchange rates, rising reserves, and slowly declining inflation.

“These results are exactly what you need to see in a stabilisation phase. These are big achievements, and many countries would envy them,” he remarked.

However, he cautioned that these macroeconomic improvements had not yet been translated into better living standards for the majority of Nigerians.

“Despite these stabilisation gains, many households are still struggling with eroded purchasing power. Poverty, which began to rise in 2019 due to policy missteps and external shocks such as COVID-19, has continued to increase even after the reforms. In 2025, we estimate that 139 million Nigerians live in poverty,” he revealed.

The figure marks a steep increase from the 129 million reported in April 2025 and the 87 million recorded in 2023, indicating deepening hardship for many households despite ongoing economic adjustments.

Although the Presidency dismissed the figure, several political opposition parties, economists, and labour unions commented on the report, stating that despite reforms, the economic pressure on everyday Nigerians remained intense.

The Labour Party’s Interim National Publicity Secretary, Tony Akeni, said the report highlighted the harsh reality facing many Nigerians.

“While the President talks about growth and reduced inflation, these are only figures on paper. They haven’t translated into any advantage for the ordinary Nigerian,” Akeni stated.

He urged the government to begin producing visible outcomes from its economic plans, noting that the continued depreciation of the naira had driven more citizens into extreme poverty.

“In some places, people earn maybe a dollar or two a day. It’s crazy,” he added.

Likewise, Ladipo Johnson, spokesperson for the New Nigeria People’s Party, criticised the government for aggravating the country’s debt problems while failing to soften the blow of recent policy reforms.

“The President keeps proposing new loans even after exceeding budget targets. These contradictions point to more perils for Nigeria,” Johnson said, warning that the poverty level could worsen before the year ends.

He urged civil society groups and political opposition to unite in keeping the government in check.

“Unless civil society and political parties come together to scrutinise this government, it will plunge the country over the cliff,” he warned.

Timothy Osadolor, Deputy National Youth Leader of the Peoples Democratic Party, accused the administration of misleading citizens about its achievements.

“We don’t need the World Bank or the UN to tell us there’s hunger in the land. You can see it on the faces of Nigerians everywhere,” Osadolor said.

He advised the President to use the rest of his term to rebuild public trust.

“Nigerians are dying of poverty. If the President cannot resign, he should at least work to save his name before history judges him.”

Bola Abdullahi, the National Publicity Secretary of the African Democratic Congress, dismissed the administration’s claims of success as “meaningless.”

“The GDP numbers mean nothing because they don’t reflect the lives of ordinary Nigerians. We’re glad the World Bank has said it, maybe the government will listen to its friends if they don’t want to listen to us,” he commented.

Chris Onyeka, Assistant General Secretary of the Nigeria Labour Congress, said that workers were already fully aware of the poverty situation and didn’t need statistics from the World Bank or IMF to know it.

“We know the truth. Millions are struggling to meet basic needs,” he said, pointing out that inflation, a weak naira, and high food and rent prices had significantly reduced the value of the new minimum wage of N70,000.

He mentioned that the wage, which equals about $46 a month, “barely covers the cost of a bag of rice.”

Onyeka further stated that “poverty is not an abstract statistic; it is lived reality,” and called on the government to prioritise worker welfare and economic rights.

Experts in economics have noted that the ongoing economic reform efforts in Nigeria have initially increased poverty levels, largely due to inflation and the shocks from major policy changes.

Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, said that reforms often take time before showing positive effects.

“The process of fixing what’s broken has aggravated poverty,” he stated, explaining that subsidy removal and exchange rate harmonisation had driven up prices and weakened spending power.

Yusuf said that while the economy’s foundations are becoming more stable, the next focus should be on measures that directly reduce the cost of living.

“We need different policies now to address welfare directly,” he concluded.

Professor Akpan Ekpo, former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Uyo, said that economic growth alone will not reduce poverty unless it is accompanied by targeted policy interventions.

“You can’t grow at four per cent and expect poverty to drop. Growth must be double-digit and sustained for years, like China did,” he explained.

He urged the government to invest in education, skills training, and human capital development instead of depending on short-term relief schemes.

“Cash transfers won’t solve poverty; deliberate government policy will,” he said.

However, Okechukwu Unegbu, a former President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, warned that international financial institutions often exaggerate Africa’s problems.

“I don’t believe everything the World Bank says, but there’s no denying poverty is everywhere,” he commented. “The question is whether the government is serious about tackling it.”

Teslim Shitta-Bey, Chief Economist at Proshare Nigeria, agreed that the Tinubu administration’s reforms were needed but said they had disproportionately impacted the poor.

“Exchange rate unification and subsidy removal were inevitable, but the challenge now is ensuring the gains reach ordinary Nigerians,” he said.

He forecast that Nigeria’s economy was set to grow, with GDP potentially reaching 4.4 per cent by the end of the year, but stressed the importance of boosting energy supply and digital skills to help citizens adapt to the global economy.

“The world rewards multiple income streams; Nigeria must prepare its people to earn globally,” he added.