How 2026 Budget Compares With 2025 Budget.

President Bola Tinubu’s 2026 Appropriation Bill reveals a marked increase in fiscal ambition compared to the 2025 budget, featuring a larger deficit and more cautious economic forecasts. 

The planned expenditure for 2026 stands at ₦58.18 trillion, up significantly from ₦49.7 trillion in 2025, reflecting the government’s commitment to deepen reforms and maintain economic recovery. 

However, projected revenues for 2026 are slightly lower at ₦34.33 trillion compared to ₦34.82 trillion in 2025, widening the fiscal deficit.

Consequently, the budget deficit is expected to grow to ₦23.85 trillion, equivalent to 4.28% of GDP, up from ₦13.08 trillion in 2025, indicating a heavier reliance on borrowing to finance government spending. 

Capital expenditure rises to ₦26.08 trillion, signalling ongoing investment in infrastructure and productive sectors, while debt servicing increases to ₦15.52 trillion, showing a growing public debt burden. Recurrent non-debt spending is steady at ₦15.25 trillion.

The macroeconomic assumptions for 2026 are more conservative, with the oil price benchmark lowered to $64.85 per barrel from $75, oil production scaled down to 1.8 million barrels per day from 2.06 million, and a slightly stronger exchange rate set at ₦1,400 per dollar compared to ₦1,500 previously. 

The economy showed signs of gradual recovery, with GDP growing by 3.98% in Q3 2025 and foreign reserves reaching $47 billion, a seven-year peak.

Sector allocations show increased funding for defence and security, rising to ₦5.41 trillion from ₦4.91 trillion, while infrastructure spending falls to ₦3.56 trillion from ₦4.06 trillion. Education and health budgets remain stable at ₦3.52 trillion and ₦2.48 trillion, respectively. 

The budget also underscores social and development programs such as healthcare funding at 6% of the total budget, assistance to over 780,000 students through the education loan scheme, plans to develop one million hectares of farmland to boost food security, and $500 million in health aid from the U.S., highlighting the administration’s National Renewal objectives amid tighter fiscal conditions.