A Reuters report, citing three sources familiar with the Russian leader's thinking, said Ukraine's recent drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and ports have strengthened Putin's determination to continue the war, now in its fifth year.
Two of the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said there was a strong possibility that Russia would intensify its military campaign in the coming months. One source, who reportedly meets regularly with Putin, described the likelihood of escalation as "high".
The development comes despite comments by U.S. President Donald Trump, who recently said Putin wanted the war to end and that a resolution was "closer than people realise".
Trump has held separate telephone conversations with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in recent weeks. He also met Zelenskyy during the NATO summit, where the Ukrainian leader said they discussed ways to bring peace closer.
However, one source familiar with the Kremlin's thinking said Putin had "dug in his heels" and remained focused on capturing the remainder of the eastern Donbas region. The source claimed the Russian leader had recently rejected suggestions from advisers to consider a compromise based on a ceasefire along current front lines.
Another source said Putin believes Russian forces will eventually seize full control of Donbas, despite slower advances on the battlefield this year.
The Russian president publicly rejected Zelenskyy's call in June for a direct meeting and a ceasefire.
Responding to the latest report, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia remained open to a peaceful resolution but retained the capability to continue what Moscow describes as its "special military operation".
A senior Ukrainian official, responding on behalf of Zelenskyy's office, said intelligence assessments in recent months suggested that Putin was preparing for further military action rather than peace negotiations, including potential new operations in Ukraine and even the possibility of an attack on another European country.
Russian military analysts have increasingly discussed the prospect of escalation publicly, including the possibility of strikes against European targets such as NATO bases in the Baltic states.
Defence analyst Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute said Russia may not be seeking direct war with NATO but could attempt limited attacks designed to create divisions within the alliance.
"The Russians would not be aiming for a war with NATO. But it could be used to divide NATO over how to respond," Watling said.
Ukraine's recent strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have reportedly caused fuel shortages in parts of Russia, bringing the effects of the war closer to ordinary citizens. Although Putin's approval ratings remain relatively high, recent polling indicates they have fallen to their lowest levels since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.
In response to Ukraine's recent successes, Russia has launched major drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv. Moscow insists the strikes targeted military infrastructure, although Ukrainian officials say dozens of civilians have been killed.
Putin has also indicated that Russia may seek to establish a broader "security zone" along the Ukrainian border, potentially extending military operations beyond Donbas.
Meanwhile, former Russian defence ministry official Andrei Ilnitsky has suggested that further escalation could include attacks on major industrial facilities in Ukraine and, eventually, strikes on NATO bases in the Baltic states and Romania, as well as European facilities producing weapons for Ukraine.
As the conflict drags on, Russia's progress on the battlefield has slowed considerably, raising concerns that capturing the entire Donbas region could require significant time and further casualties.
According to a recent estimate by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, around two million soldiers from both sides have been killed, wounded or remain missing since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv regularly publishes military casualty figures.

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