OSUN ELECTION: One Winner, Two Political Victories

There is no question that Governor Ademola Adeleke and his supporters have every reason to celebrate the outcome emerging from Saturday’s Osun governorship election. Indeed, many Nigerians had expected the incumbent to prevail, notwithstanding the peculiar circumstances surrounding the election. And, from the results so far, he appears to have lived up to those expectations.

But beyond the celebration lies another story that should not be lost in the euphoria.

The performance of the opposition All Progressives Congress is, in its own way, also a political victory.

For a party that went into the election as the opposition in Osun, carrying, at the same time, the burden of public discontent associated with the difficult economic reforms of the APC-controlled federal government, to still command such a massive share of the vote is significant.

It means the APC remains deeply rooted in Osun. It was not swept away. It was not rejected into irrelevance. On the contrary, it demonstrated that it possesses a formidable electoral structure and a substantial support base capable of fighting a very competitive election against a popular incumbent.

And therein lies perhaps the bigger message from Osun.

If the APC can poll this strongly at a time of considerable economic hardship, when anger against the federal government is arguably one of the easiest political sentiments to mobilise, then those already writing off the party ahead of the 2027 general election may need to revisit their calculations.

Adeleke may have every reason to celebrate—and deservedly so. But the APC also has something important to take away from Osun: it is still very much in the game.

Perhaps, therefore, the real story of Osun is not simply about who won and who lost. It is that the winner retained his mandate, while the loser demonstrated sufficient strength to remind everyone that 2027 may yet be a far more interesting contest than many presently imagine.